The Challenges of Drought Prediction

The article below, by Zengchao Hao, published on 16 February 2018,  discusses the challenges that still exist in terms of drought forecasting despite the many advancements in the field.

Source: The Challenges of Drought Prediction

Deciphering Deluges: New modeling approach reexamines two key assumptions about flooding

For the last century, the U.S. Geological Survey, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and others have collected data on flooding activity to assess damage and help predict future events. Accurately forecasting the frequency and magnitude of flooding events is critical for infrastructure design, environmental management, and disaster preparedness and response.

Although long-term flood records are useful, there may also be large-scale, systematic forces at work that past studies have not adequately captured. For one, traditional prediction methods often assume that flood hydrology is stationary, or, rather, that the magnitude and variability of flood events do not change systematically over time. However, climate change and water management practices could significantly alter the magnitude and variability of extreme flooding events, causing floods to become nonstationary.

Continue to read the article by clicking on the link below.

 

Source: Deciphering Deluges by Sarah Witman (31 August, 2017, Water Resources Research).